Azeri analyst says Russia's build-up against Turkmen pipeline plans

Russia is building up its Caspian navy to thwart any plans for delivering Turkmen gas to Europe via an undersea pipeline to Azerbaijan, an analyst has told Yeni Musavat.

In an interview with this opposition daily on 7 March, the head of the Atlas research centre, Elxan Sahinoglu, said that the build-up is not directed against Azerbaijan or its military alliance with Turkey, but against any plans to build a pipeline for Turkmen gas under the Caspian sea.

All of the Caspian littoral states are Russia's partners or allies, he added.

"Russia does not have problems with any of the Caspian littoral states. It calls Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Iran its strategic partners and allied states. Then who is the target of the muscle flexing in the Caspian?"

Azerbaijan's ties with Turkey

Sahinoglu said that Azerbaijan only appears to be the most likely intimidation target.

"It is true that Azerbaijan is Turkey's strategic military ally and Turkish-Russian relations have soured. Considering this, we can say with this logic that Russia wants to intimidate Azerbaijan. However, Russia understands that Azerbaijan is not going to give up on military cooperation with Turkey anyway," he said.

According to Sahinoglu, nor is this pressure related to Azerbaijan's position on the Syrian issue.

"On this matter, we are actually acting in accordance with Russia's wishes. It is also in our interests to not support the position of Russia and Iran, while ruling out joining the Islamic coalition that Turkey and Saudi Arabia want. Azerbaijan maintains the balanced position. In this sense, there is no need for Russia to flex its muscles for Azerbaijan".

Gas pipelines

He concluded that Russia is building up its Caspian navy because of the local energy resources. The Trans-Adriatic (TAP) and Trans-Anatolian (TANAP) gas pipeline projects have been endorsed with support from the EU and this route bypasses Russia.

"Russia may be concerned over this. Russia cannot prevent Azerbaijani gas from reaching Europe. It does not even have a policy to this end because Russia believes that Azerbaijani gas is not much of an alternative for Russian gas in the European market," Sahinoglu said.

He said that Russia does not have the means or desire to oppose the TAP project.

"We can see no reports in any mass media affiliated with the Kremlin against TAP. Because Russia is not concerned about the project that envisages delivering to Europe small volumes of gas. Russia's policy may change in the future, if the topic of expanding TAP surfaces or gas from other countries joins it," Sahinoglu said.

Turkmen gas

On the other hand, Russia fears that Turkmenistan may join this project through an undersea pipeline.

"I believe that this is the reason for Russia's flexing of muscles in the Caspian. It is sending a message to Turkey and the EU that Moscow will not allow the construction of a pipeline under the Caspian sea," Sahinoglu said.

The analyst said that Azerbaijan is not pushing forward with the construction of this pipeline.

"If Turkmenistan has to build a pipeline that joins it with Azerbaijan, it is Turkey and the EU that have to be more active here. If there is no such activity, then Azerbaijan is not going to negotiate with Turkmenistan against Russia and lobby for the construction of the pipeline," he said.

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