ADB raises Azerbaijan’s 2025 economic growth forecast to 3.4%

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised its forecast for Azerbaijan’s GDP growth to 3.4% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026, the bank said on Tuesday.

The revised 2025 forecast is 0.8 percentage points higher than the previous estimate. ADB now expects Azerbaijan’s average annual economic growth for 2025–2026 to reach 3.35%.

For the broader Caucasus and Central Asia region, ADB projects a slowdown in economic activity due to weaker external demand: from 5.7% in 2024 to 5.4% in 2025 and 5.0% in 2026.

According to Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Economy, GDP growth in 2025 is projected at 3.5%, while the country’s central bank forecasts 3.3%.

International rating agencies offer varying forecasts:

S&P Global – 2% annually

Fitch Ratings – 3% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026

Moody’s – 2.5% annually

EBRD – 3% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026

World Bank – 2.7% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026

Azerbaijan’s economy grew by 4.1% in 2024, but growth slowed to 0.2% in January–February 2025.

N.Tebrizli