SOCAR disputes IMF’s breakeven oil price forecast

Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR has rejected the International Monetary Fund’s forecast for the country’s fiscal breakeven oil price, calling it overly high.

According to the IMF’s April report on the Middle East and Central Asia, Azerbaijan’s breakeven oil price is estimated at $87.3 per barrel in 2025, falling to $85.6 in 2026 and rising again to $91.3 by 2030.

A source at SOCAR said the company estimates the 2025 breakeven price at $60–65 per barrel. “It’s still unclear what production costs will be in 2026 and beyond, but they are unlikely to reach $80–85 per barrel, making the IMF’s forecast questionable,” the source said.

Azerbaijan’s 2025 state budget was based on an oil price of $70 per barrel, but a revision is expected in June using a $65 average annual price. The same figure has been set as the baseline for 2026.

Azeri Light crude typically trades at a premium to Brent due to its high quality. In April, Brent prices fluctuated between $63 and $73 per barrel amid tensions from a “trade war” launched by the new U.S. administration.