Baku seen gaining leverage over Moscow as Russia eyes gas transit to Iran

 Russia’s plan to ship natural gas to Iran via Azerbaijan is emerging as a potential geopolitical lever for Baku, analysts and officials say, with talks between Moscow and Baku reviving a long-discussed transit route.

Russian and Azerbaijani intergovernmental commissions met in Astrakhan, signalling a thaw in ties and breathing life into a Kremlin project to use Azerbaijan’s pipelines to supply gas to Iran.

Iran’s ambassador to Moscow, Kazem Jalali, said last week the sides were close to a deal with Gazprom, with pricing the main hurdle. Tehran wants to pay $100 per 1,000 cubic metres, far below European levels.

Existing pipelines – including the Mozdok–Makhachkala–Kazi-Magomed line and the Hajigabul–Astara–Abadan route – could handle initial flows of 2 bcm, with capacity up to 13 bcm, analysts note.

For Iran, Russian gas could meet shortages in northern provinces and free volumes for export to Turkey and Iraq, but re-exports are barred by Iranian law. For Baku, agreeing to transit could become a bargaining chip – possibly trading Moscow’s neutrality on Turkmen gas plans for access to its networks, including a possible Caspian subsea link.

Such a move could position Azerbaijan as a key Caspian hub connecting Russian, Iranian and Turkmen resources to Turkey and Europe, shifting Russia’s role from dominant player to partner.

N.Tebrizli