Turcas CEO: Israel gas will flow to Turkey by 2020

"Half of the natural gas in Leviathan, 250 BCM, is slated for Turkey in the next 20-30 years. Starting in 2020, 8 BCM of gas will flow to Turkey each year," Turcas Petrol CEO Batu Aksoy stated yesterday at a press conference in Ankara. His remarks were widely reported in the Turkish press.

"In terms of the eastern Mediterranean gas, the Turkish-Israeli friendship is based on long-lasting history. As we enter the year 2016, we are in a period where we must further enhance our connections with not only our neighbors but also world countries." For months, the owners of the rights to the Leviathan gas reservoir have been negotiating the exporting of Israel gas with Turkish companies, including Turcas and Zorlu Petrogas Petrol Gaz. As of now, however, no concrete deal is yet being discussed. Since the Marmara incident, relations between the countries have deteriorated, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has banned imports of gas from Israel. Given the difficulty in exporting Israel gas to Egypt, however, and in view of the fact that Turkey has experienced repeated disruptions in its supply of gas from Russia, both sides have expressed a desire to renew the negotiations.

Only two weeks ago, "Globes" interviewed Turcas board member Matthew Bryza, who asserted that economically and strategically, exporting gas to Turkey is currently the best option for development of the Leviathan reservoir. "We need energy and we are willing to pay for it," Byrza said, adding that exporting gas to Turkey was also the best option for Israel. "The Israeli gas that Turkey could buy from Israel will be purchased at a lower rate than its other suppliers, but still higher than the price Israel would receive from Egypt,” he claimed.

Aksoy is now officially backing this line, saying, "Israel can help Turkey become a hub" and "Turcas is part of a consortium of companies that wants to import Israeli gas and market it to customers in both Turkey and Europe."

Aksoy spoke about Turkey's need to diversify its sources of supply, and stated, "Diversification of Turkey's natural gas sources, which will include Israel, among others, will help it lower the price of energy in the country… There have been substantial gas discoveries in the Middle East… We can achieve our goals only through resource variety."

The Turkish economy's consumption of gas is seven times that of the Israeli economy, and is projected to increase sharply and double in the next 20 years. Turkey has no gas resources itself, and is being forced to import gas from Iran, Russia, and Azerbaijan. Turkey pays a high price for the gas it buys: an estimated $15 per MMbtu to Iran, $12 per MMbtu to Russia, and $10 per MMbtu to Azerbaijan.

A pipeline is cheaper than LNG

The Turcas CEO also spoke about building a gas pipeline connecting Israel and Turkey, saying that exporting through a pipeline is always cheaper than exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG). He thereby hinted that exporting through the liquefaction facility in Egypt would be more expensive for Israel.

"A pipeline in the Middle East will be cheaper than exporting as LNG," Asksoy said, adding that the tension between Turkey and Russia only reinforces the need to build such a pipeline. If Israel exports gas to Turkey, it will be through an undersea pipeline from the Leviathan reservoir through Cypriot territorial waters to the southernmost place in Turkey, a distance of 485 kilometers from the reservoir.

Beyond the technical difficulties of building a pipeline in relatively deep water, another difficulty is that up until now, Cypriot prime ministers have rejected the idea, due to the tense relations between Cyprus and Turkey, which occupied the northern part of the island in 1974. Bryza commented on this in an interview, saying that the political disputes on the island were probably close to a solution, and that a referendum on the matter would be held in Cyprus next fall.

"Settling the conflict will help move the gas pipeline forward, and Cyprus will be very interested in such a pipeline," he said, adding, "Gas can be sent to Cyprus through the pipeline, and when the Aphrodite reservoir is developed, the direction of the pipe can be reversed, with gas flowing from Cyprus to Turkey," Aksoy asserted.